Scott Colbert
Recorded September 21, 2026
In the latest Commerce Trust Market Brief video, Scott Colbert, Chief Economist and Director of Fixed Income Management, discusses the elevated inflation situation driving the Federal
Reserve’s (Fed) recent decision to increase its benchmark federal funds interest rate 25 basis
points for the first time since July 2023:
-
While the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) and core Personal Consumption Expenditures
Price Index (PCE) are calculated differently, both measures currently point to continued
elevated inflation that remains above the Fed’s 2% inflation rate over the long run. -
Though pushed down a touch, domestic and international equity market returns remain
positive while the bond market remains down, driven by higher interest rates tied to
inflationary pressures from oil prices. -
The price of oil remains the most significant wildcard for the inflation outlook, with
indications of a discrepancy between the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC)
expectation for future rate hikes compared with what the market may be expecting. -
What does history tell us about the impact of interest rate hiking cycles on the stock
market.
Read the transcript
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