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Four Major Themes So Far This Year in the Markets

Picture of Scott Colbert Scott Colbert : February 17, 2026

Economy Economic Insights
Four Major Themes So Far This Year in the Markets

Recorded February 17, 2026

In the latest Commerce Trust Market Brief video, Scott Colbert, Chief Economist and Director of Fixed Income Management, dives into the underlying factors driving the major economic and market themes playing out so far this year and how those themes are dynamically shaping the outlook for 2026:

  • A dramatic reversal in performance of the Magnificent Seven stocks so far this year, driven by AI volatility, while the rest of the S&P 500 Index stocks have shown positive performance, including mid- and small-cap stocks

  • A rebound in job growth in the month of January is positive news after the slowdown in 2024 and remarkably negative job growth in the fourth quarter of 2025

  • Lower inflationary statistics, if continued, could afford the Federal Reserve (Fed) room to cut interest rates later in 2026, a sentiment reflected in the Treasury yield curve

  • Even with positive economic news, the stock market could be a bit choppy this year given relatively high valuations, but expectations around profitability, earnings growth, continued economic expansion, and historical market patterns offset concerns about stock market volatility

 

Read the transcript

 

 

 

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