The economic momentum seen at the start of the year did not last after a collision of headwinds quickly transformed the market. As we watch impacts of the tariffs play out alongside rising inflation and a diminishing dollar, recession risk looms, but may be kept in check for now.
The United States’ status as a safe haven for global capital has come under scrutiny. Equities are facing a challenging environment with sustained market volatility and a pullback in consumer spending. Each new headline puts fixed income markets on notice as traders react with moves aimed to reduce their risk. Investors are flocking to alternatives such as gold, or looking to hedged equities seeking protection from downsides in a volatile market.
The opinions and other information in the commentary are as of May 31, 2025. The Outlook is a special report designed to provide investment information on economic markets for clients of Commerce Trust. It is intended to provide general information only and reflects the opinions of the Commerce Trust Investment Policy Committee.
The information contained herein is not directed to, designed for, or individually tailored to, any particular investor or potential investor. This information should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy or plan.
The information and opinions provided in the commentary are subject to change based on changes in the market or other conditions. Commerce Trust does not undertake to advise you of any change in its opinions or the information contained in this commentary.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against all risk. In considering whether to trade or invest, you should inform yourself and be aware of the risks. When investing there is always the risk of loss of principal and there is no guarantee that investment objectives will be achieved. Different types of investments have varying degrees of risk and the asset classes and investments discussed in this commentary may not be appropriate for all investors.
You, as the investor, are fully responsible for any investment transaction you choose to enter into, including determining whether such investment is appropriate in light of your investment objectives and personal circumstance. You shall not have relied on any of the proceeding information from Commerce Trust as the basis for any investment decision. This material is not intended to replace the advice of a qualified attorney, tax advisor, or investment professional. You should consult your financial, legal and/or tax advisors before making any financial decisions.
Commerce Trust does not provide advice relating to rolling over retirement accounts. Commerce Trust is not a registered municipal advisor under Section 15B of the Securities Exchange Act and does not offer advice or recommendations concerning bond proceeds or other municipal advice subject to this section.
Data contained herein is derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources deemed by Commerce Trust to be reliable but are not necessarily all-inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy.
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