2026 COMMERCE TRUST ECONOMIC AND MARKET OUTLOOK

Markets Defy Economic Tension


Read the 2026 Commerce Trust Economic and Market Outlook

2026 Commerce Trust Economic and Market Outlook: Markets Defy Economic Tension

Since Covid, the U.S. has experienced strong economic growth, corporate profits, and household wealth. Even as markets cooled, the U.S. maintained positive economic momentum. But a confluence of headwinds could quickly change the economic environment in the new year ahead.  

New government policies on immigration and tariffs have raised near-term inflation expectations and dulled economic output. The government’s debt burden remains at its highest level in decades. And a sharp drawdown in job creation, coupled with the longest government shutdown on record elevates the possibility of an economic slowdown.  

Economic and market challenges shaped performance across equities, fixed income, and alternative investments in 2025. Through this period of market tension, we remain steadfast to our core belief that asset allocation is the driver of returns. 

The 2026 Economic and Market Outlook is the combined effort of David Hagee, Chief Investment Officer, and the investment management leadership team, articulating our perspectives and deep experiences to form a position on both the economy and financial markets, and evaluating investment portfolio opportunities available to our wealth clients. 

Read the 2026 Commerce Trust Economic and Market Outlook

2026 Commerce Trust Economic and Market Outlook: Markets Defy Economic Tension

The opinions and other information in the commentary are as of December 3, 2025. The Outlook is a special report designed to provide investment information on economic markets for clients of Commerce Trust. It is intended to provide general information only and reflects the opinions of the Commerce Trust Investment Policy Committee.

The information contained herein is not directed to, designed for, or individually tailored to, any particular investor or potential investor. This information should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy or plan.

The information and opinions provided in the commentary are subject to change based on changes in the market or other conditions. Commerce Trust does not undertake to advise you of any change in its opinions or the information contained in this commentary.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against all risk. In considering whether to trade or invest, you should inform yourself and be aware of the risks. When investing there is always the risk of loss of principal and there is no guarantee that investment objectives will be achieved. Different types of investments have varying degrees of risk and the asset classes and investments discussed in this commentary may not be appropriate for all investors.

You, as the investor, are fully responsible for any investment transaction you choose to enter into, including determining whether such investment is appropriate in light of your investment objectives and personal circumstance. You shall not have relied on any of the proceeding information from Commerce Trust as the basis for any investment decision. This material is not intended to replace the advice of a qualified attorney, tax advisor, or investment professional. You should consult your financial, legal and/or tax advisors before making any financial decisions.

Commerce Trust does not provide advice relating to rolling over retirement accounts. Commerce Trust is not a registered municipal advisor under Section 15B of the Securities Exchange Act and does not offer advice or recommendations concerning bond proceeds or other municipal advice subject to this section.

Data contained herein is derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources deemed by Commerce Trust to be reliable but are not necessarily all-inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy.

This material may not be reproduced or referred to in any publication, in whole or in part, or in any form or manner, without the express written consent of Commerce Trust. Any unauthorized use is prohibited.