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Economic and Market Conditions Entering 2026

Picture of Scott Colbert Scott Colbert : January 5, 2026

Economy Economic Insights
Economic and Market Conditions Entering 2026

Recorded January 5, 2025

In the latest Commerce Trust Market Brief video, Scott Colbert, Chief Economist and Director of Fixed Income Management, recaps how U.S. markets performed in 2025, leading into the macroeconomic outlook for this year and how economic conditions could influence markets in 2026.   

  • Helped along by the drop in interest rates, broad asset class returns were very positive last year for equities, fixed income, and gold, but those broad positive returns mask volatility and concentration in the U.S. markets  

  • How does 2025 inform our view on economic growth, inflation, the budget deficit, interest rates, and the pace of equity returns in 2026 

  • Job growth slowed meaningfully toward the end of 2025, will we see the rebound in job growth in 2026 needed to avoid a recession?  

 

Read the transcript

*Correction: As of December 31, 2025, the S&P 500 Index was up 17.9% for the 2025 calendar year.

 

 

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