What the Yield Curve Inversion Tells Us Podcast

 Chief Investment Officer David Hagee, Director of Fixed Income Research Brent Schowe
May 15, 2023

One of the most reliable indicators of economic forecasting is the yield curve. It is a perfect 10 for 10: every recession since 1955 has been preceded by an inversion. Currently the yields of the 10-year and 2-year Treasury bills have been inverted for 11 months. Is a recession looming in the near term, and if so, how severe will it be? We discuss the yield curve inversion in our latest episode of Conversations with Commerce Trust. We also encourage you to download our companion piece to the podcast, examining what makes this yield curve inversion unique.  

Lastly, Chief Investment Officer David Hagee provides an overview on the debt ceiling standstill and what’s at stake should the U.S. default on its debt obligations.  

(You can subscribe to the podcast at Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon Music or Stitcher, get the RSS feed, or listen via the media player above.)

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR

david hagee commerce trust
David Hagee Executive Vice President, Chief Investment Officer Commerce Trust 
David is the chief investment officer for Commerce Trust and of Commerce Investment Advisors, Inc., the SEC-registered advisor to the Commerce Funds mutual fund complex. Upon gaining a thorough understanding of a client’s needs and goals as well as assessing the client’s entire financial situation, he works with our investment research team to construct a portfolio to help clients achieve their long-term goals.

David has been with Commerce Bank for more than 25 years and Commerce Trust since 2000. During his tenure with Commerce Trust, he has held positions of increasing responsibility, serving as an investment portfolio manager for both private and institutional clients, the director of portfolio management for the eastern region, and now his current role as Chief Investment Officer. David also hosts Conversations with Commerce Trust, a monthly podcast about the markets, investment themes, and economic insights that matter to investors.

David earned his Bachelor of Arts from Washington University in St. Louis. He is a member of the CFA Institute and the St. Louis Society of Financial Analysts. 

He is a board member and treasurer of Aim High St. Louis, and a board member of the Opera Theatre of St. Louis and International Institute of St. Louis. Additionally, David serves as president of the investment committee of the Center of Creative Arts (COCA). He is also a member of the investment committee for the St. Louis Symphony Orchestra and Forest Park Forever.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

brent schowe commerce trust
Brent Schowe, CFA® Senior Vice President, Director of Fixed Income Research Commerce Trust
Brent is a director of fixed income research for Commerce Trust. Upon gaining a thorough understanding of a client’s needs and goals as well as assessing the client’s entire financial situation, he works with our investment research team to construct a portfolio to help clients achieve their long-term goals.

Brent comprehensively represents our research- and goals-based investment process, starting with the initial assessment and creation of an investment objective to ongoing evaluation and adjustments based on changing market and life circumstances. With a deep knowledge of the market and experience in investment management, he serves clients with thought leadership, insight, and consulting services. Prior to joining Commerce Bank in 1999, he spent five years as an analyst and assistant manager with the Federal Reserve Banks of Kansas City and St. Louis.

He graduated with a bachelor of science in finance from Truman State University in 1994 and holds the Chartered Financial Analyst® designation. Brent is a member of the CFA Institute and the St. Louis Society of Financial Analysts. He is a member and elder at St. Paul's Lutheran Church in Des Peres, MO. He serves as a finance committee member at the Lutheran Foundation of St. Louis. Outside of work, Brent spends as much free time as possible with family. An avid baseball fan (and mediocre softball player), he spent many years coaching youth baseball. Brent and his wife, Julie, have two children.